US desperate in Waziristan hotbed
By K.N. Pandita,
On 31 December 2008, barely two days after the assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the Pentagon quietly announced approval to the defence giant Lockheed Martin transferring eighteen F-16 warplanes to Pakistan.
The deal had been on tabletop for a long time, and Pakistan had made the payment long back. However, the timing of the announcement did spring surprise in some circles in the US.
The Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Joseph Biden said. ” The decision to go ahead with half a billion dollar sale of advance fighter aircraft to Pakistan shows how dangerous misguided President Bush’s policy is. How can the White House even think of green-lighting such a sale at such an incredibly sensitive time? It sends exactly the wrong message to Pakistan Generals and to the Pakistani people. This is the time we should be putting pressure on the government and the military to fully investigate the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, and to hold free and fair elections and not let them off the hook.”
Observers are a trifle surprised at Washington’s hope that elections in Pakistan would be fair and free, if held at all next month. Faced with escalation of Taliban-Al Qaeda combined resistance in Waziristan in NWFP of Pakistan, Washington is eager that Pakistan Generals make no misadventure that could scuttle election process.
Officials at Pakistan desk in the State Department hope that impending elections next month in Pakistan would return a large moderate and secular majority to the Pakistani parliament. This, they believe, would become catalyst to the ousting of radical coalition of Islamist parties now controlling the government in Pushtun belt, NWFP and Balochistan. If that happens then Pervez Musharraf’s position will be strengthened and Pakistan get better manoeuvrability of tackling insurgency issue in NWFP in particular.
But the timing of the announcement of transfer of 18 advanced warplanes together with mishandling of Benazir’s assassination case have give rise to many doubts and questions.
For example, Senator Biden asked why Washington’s military aid to Pakistan should not carry the condition of Pakistan undertaking far- reaching political and administrative reforms. There are other critical comments as well.
Concerned circles have reported that most of US’ 11 billion dollar aid provided to Pakistan over past five years has been used to buy conventional weapons system more appropriate for war against India than increasingly powerful Pakistan Taliban based in Pushtun dominated Federal Area of Tribal Agency (FATA) and NWFP.
F-16s cannot be operated and are not meant for use in any operation of counter insurgency n FATA, says Steve Coll, author of the history of CIA, viz. Ghost Wars.
Many among the think tank in the US insist that US aid should be tied to specific performance and stepping up counter insurgency in NWFP. It will be reminded that the US has committed 750 million dollars towards development aid in FATA. The long-term aid is meant to weaken insurgency in the region.
While these aspects of the ground situation in Waziristan are under observation, the US officials have also been discussing plans of authorising the CIA and Special Operation Force to mount cross border operation from Afghanistan against key Taliban/Al Qaeda targets.
This could perhaps explain President Bush’s recent decision of adding 2300 marines to the existing US military force in Afghanistan and bringing the total number to 30,000. More than 300 troops have so far been killed in action against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.
However, experts are not closing their eye to the consequences of launching a cross border attack on Pakistani Taliban in the frontier region of NWFP. White House would not like to further destabilise the position of Pervez Musharraf who they believe has not become totally redundant to their interests in the region.
It will be reminded that according to an expert study by Rand Corporation, 70 per cent people of Pakistan feel that Pervez Musharraf is unpopular with them. This equals the unpopularity percentage of President Bush as well in Pakistan,
Washington’s adventure of cross border action is bound to have repercussions on India’s security concerns particularly in Jammu and Kashmir State. If Taliban insurgents feel the heat of American strike in Swat region, they could make strategic retreat into Kashmir territory where conditions are somewhat conducive to their re-grouping after a brief respite. This will bring Indian security structure in J&K under server pressure and could also adversely affect Indo-Pak peace process. New Delhi should take up this matter with the American counterparts and apprise them of possible fallout of a reckless adventure on Pak-Afghan border. It should not be overlooked that in Southern and South Eastern Afghanistan, Taliban-Al Qaeda combine has strengthened its position considerably. This is bound to boot the morale of the insurgent forces in Waziristan.
(The writer is the former Director, Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University).
Link (put by the responsibility of Heidi of the AEHRF’s Geneva-Office): Global Empire without Emperor?