Are war clouds looming large?
By K.N. Pandit
Editorials in some leading national dailies, commentaries by regional and strategic experts and Indo-Pak watchers have been speaking in much disquiet about Mumbai terrorist attacks. The tragedy has grossly ravaged Indian civil society, which is losing faith in government’s ability to meet the challenge of Theo-fascism.
Will the UPA government do something big to reinstate nation’s trust in it? Will it risk war with Pakistan on the plea that it has irrefutable evidence to tell international community that Islamabad has no control over the Theo-fascists who are strongly entrenched in that country and have the support of a large segment of Pakistani administrative structure and part of civil society? Is the matter come to its brim and precipitate action is warranted? Are war clouds looming large over Indo-Pak horizon?
These vital questions are under serious consideration of the UPA government. To be or not to be, that is the question.
If India decides to go for an outright war with Pakistan, first of all, she must have a very strong case to present to the international community. If she has decisive evidence, which in her estimation will convince the international community, will not Pakistan produce counter evidence to say that she too has been a victim of terrorist attacks and as such what rationale is there in targeting her. Taking the recent history of terrorism in Pakistan into consideration, there are very thin chances that international community will get convinced that India had no option but to declare war against Pakistani terrorists especially such organizations as are openly anti-India and based in Pakistan or POK.
Secondly, it has to be understood that the US and UK will never agree to the dismemberment of Pakistan because that upsets their entire scheme of things in the region. Washington has, not once but a number of times categorically said that perpetuation of Pakistan is of strategic importance to the US. Assuming that China factor can be easily neglected in a prospect of Indo-Pak war and hostilities, the European Union will never feel happy with India trying to gain an upper hand in the Sub-continent.
Furthermore, the Muslim states in the neighbourhood, especially the Sunni Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, Gulf Emirates, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Iran, Syria and the rest of them will hardly feel at ease in a prospect in which India emerges the undisputed power in the sub-continent. It should be made clear that in case of an open war with Pakistan, India will never be able to achieve the precise objective — of eliminating and eradicating terrorism from Pakistan unless she is able to win over to her side the US, UK and the Israel. Bombardment and destruction of PoK on the plea that the fountain-head of anti-India terrorist planning takes place in that region will provoke the response of Islamabad, which means full-fledged war between the two countries.
Thirdly, is India’s economy in a position to withstand the burden of a war with Pakistan at a time when prices are soaring high and the world is engulfed in financial crisis? We know that Indian Finance Minister is involved in leading the country out of global financial crisis. A war would mean undoing of all his efforts that demand fine-tuning to international fiscal reforms.
Pakistan has an elected government in place. There is no question of bringing onus to the military generals in that country for what the terrorists are doing. The government in Islamabad has suffered almost identical ravages of terrorist attack on Marriott Hotel recently. It is a different story that while Pakistan’s attacks on Taliban and pro-Al Qaida outfits are presented as essential measures of ensuring Pakistan’s political sovereignty and territorial integrity, any similar action by the Indian soldiers against Pakistan terrorist camps in PoK will be trumpeted by Islamabad as an attempt to dismember the Islamic State of Pakistan. Significance of Pakistan to the OIC is undoubtedly of high pitch. Muslim world considers Pakistan as the frontline state in giving direction to the ummah in its complex dealings with contemporary powers and their strategies. One should not forget that till today Pakistan is the only Muslim country having nuclear weapon.
In terms of tactics, a war on Pakistan or PoK will become a catalyst to forging solidarity among the otherwise warring factions and ethnic-linguistic groups in Pakistan who have been at loggerheads among themselves for quite some time. It will dramatically exacerbate the influence and importance of Pakistan Army, which has been somewhat feeling subdued by a shift of political system from military dictatorship to democracy.
These factors diminish chances of New Delhi taking a precipitate action. Nevertheless, the situation in the aftermath of Mumbai carnage is so grim that it has great bearing on the element of caution and consideration. That India is seriously thinking of hitting the nail on its head can be understood by repeated statement of the Pakistani foreign minister that India should not abandon reason and rationality in dealing with the crisis. This means that Pakistan is not unmindful of an eventuality in which India can take the risk of embarking on hostilities.
War is a necessary evil, goes the old adage. Wars have been waged, victories have been won and people have been provided space to develop phenomenally. A scourge that has been plaguing peaceful civil society and a responsible people’s government for more than two decades, must find a grand finale. A physical victory over the institutions and organizations of Theo-fascism is a dependable and viable guarantee of providing peace to the civil society. It will establish the law of rule and democracy and it will eradicate Theo-fascism that is eating into the vitals of our nation. A war won against the adversary provides space to the Indian Union to assert not only regionally but also globally. China has no courage to interfere when an outright war is declared. The US will wait and watch how the largest democracy in the world is inching towards entanglement in a unrelenting proxy war. Washington would be too happy to see a local power pitted against her recalcitrant ally whom she hates and loves alternately. In the heart of hearts she will feel relieved and relaxed that India would be indirectly serving her interests though outwardly she will pose as a genuine mediator. A winning war with Pakistan solves our Kashmir, SIMI, Assam, Khalistan and many other problems. It, once for all, curbs anti-national elements that are hell bent on damaging the country. In addition, it will gag the mouth of pro-fundamentalist Indian political class who has been going to all lengths to enrich their vote bank. The vote bank syndrome that has done greatest damage to Indian State will be demolished and disbanded once for all.
This comparative study shows that India will emerge a gainer from a war with Pakistan at this point of time. She missed the bus during Kargil conflict and should not repeat the mistake. She should issue an ultimatum to Islamabad to wind up terrorist camps in PoK and its adjoining areas failing which a blitzkrieg needs to be resorted to.
(The writer is the former Director of the Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University).