Indo-Pak stand off and the US mediation
By K.N. Pandit
In the past the US intervened thrice to avert breaking out of a war between India and Pakistan. She and the world powers have a stake in helping maintain normalcy in South Asian region. Any well-wisher of peace and tranquility will appreciate the role of the US in brokering cordiality between the two nuclear but hostile states of the region.
But is it enough just to avert the crisis and then wait for the return of another crisis with greater intensity and potentiality for a disastrous war? Will it not be in the interests of the world community to find a lasting solution to the menace and lift the Damocles’ sword from the head of innocent human beings?
Historically speaking, the US is committed to ensure the existence of Pakistan even though many observers think it a failed state. The reality is that Pakistan never was nor ever shall be a failed state. The creation of Pakistan is the handiwork of imperialists. How can they let this piece of their creation fall apart? The US has been sustaining it by providing cash doles from time to time especially to its army, which has the final say in Pakistan’s affairs. If there were not the war on terrorism and the need for direct action by the US and NATO forces, still the US would never abandon Pakistan. The Friends of Pakistan caucus spearheaded by the US and Saudi Arabia has promised over 7.6 billion dollars to Pakistan to bridge over her ongoing financial crisis.
The US has a very strong stake in Pakistan. This country is the military muscle of Wahhabi Sunni regime of Saudi Arabia. It is Saudi money that has built a strong Theo-fascist structure in Pakistan, thousands of its madrassahs with formidable infrastructure, mosques, theological institutes, armed Islamic militias, terrorist training centers, disinformation campaign strategy and many more things. Indian Islamist organizations and institutions, too, have come within the ambit of Saudi munificence.
Pakistan is a major element in US-Saudi relationship. In her foreign policy, Islamabad is almost an appendix of Saudi Arabia. Major guidelines on her foreign policy with global implications generally emanate from Riyadh. In dealing with Islamists in North Waziristan or Afghanistan or India, Pakistan cannot go out of the parameters set by the Saudi intelligence organization. And finally the US exerts its pressure on Pakistan only through the Saudis because of triumvirate strategic alliance. The Saudi-US combine was instrumental in forcing Nawaz Sharif to leave Pakistan and take shelter in Saudi Arabia following a coup by General Musharraf. Again the same combine intervened to forge a deal according to which former President Musharraf was not to be impeached but left to live unhurt as a retired head of the state.
The US has made very significant contribution in building Pakistan militarily power, and the Saudis have poured in enormous funds, including those for the making of a nuclear bomb. That Washington closed its eye to Islamabad clandestinely obtaining nuclear technology from China speaks a lot about the nature of their relationship. Thousands of Pakistanis are working in Saudi Arabia wherefrom they make enormous remittances back home. Through Saudi goodwill thousands more have found work in the Gulf Emirates and this all boosts Pakistan’s economy.
In regard to India, the Saudis have been telling the radical Islamic outfits like LET and others in Pakistan to use their muscle power in a low key only and to keep the pot boiling. Saudi intelligence has reported that India is the most vulnerable target for a variety of reasons: a good section of its 13.5 % Muslim population has responded vigorously to fundamentalist/Wahhabi indoctrination; her administrative structure is not only viciously irresponsible but also highly incompetent; her intelligence organizations are the most corrupt ones, and its politics is in the hands of charlatans and jokers. As such this fragile state deserves to be left to dismember under its own weight.
Pakistan’s has threatened that it will pull back its nearly 150,000 troops from Pak-Afghan border where they are engaged in US’ war on terrorism and re-deploy them along Indo-Pak border in the wake of India’s threatening postures in post-Mumbai blasts. The US knows that New Delhi has no will to take the terrorist bull by its horns and that all that will emanate from New Delhi is fretting and fuming. As such Washington is not worried about the threat that Pakistan has handed out though she knows that Islamabad is frantically looking for a pretext to wriggle out of US-NATO’s war on terrorism.
In this scenario, the visit of Condoleezza Rice to New Delhi is only an eye- wash and the face-saving device for the indecisive Manmohan Singh government. Beyond simple eyewash, the Americans have no deep and serious interest in providing any substantial support to India in her fight against terror. Of course, the secretary of state will have once again emphasized on Indian leaders that they should become partners in NATO’s war in Afghanistan if India wants to save it from the terrorist scourge.
This is the time when India needs to re-visit its non-aligned policy though already defunct to some extent. Should she join the NATO forces to fight terrorism at its roots or not is a crucial question. In case of her joining the alliance, Indian leaders have to be prepared to witness recurrence of suicidal attacks most frequently. The terrorist organizations in India, basking in the warmth of patronage by leaders like Arjun and Mulayam and Lalu and others, will be activated to play their role of destabilizing Indian state. In such a situation, the Congress will lose its hold on political nerve of the country and for the political leaders of present generations in India; power for money and influence should not have a priority over serving national interests.
If pragmatism be the order of the day, then India has to take up the issue with Saudi Arabia – not only the Mumbai and Delhi blasts but the entire question of Islamic extremism in India and its repercussions. The matter has many dimensions, not jut one, and Indian interlocutors need to lay bare all these dimensions. Washington’s mediation means insulating further the interests of the US in the region. But any commitment by the Saudis will have to be honored by Pakistani regimes and her army. New Delhi should have advised the American secretary of state to take Saudis on board while she held talks with the leaders of two countries. Without any firm commitment by the Saudis to any proposal of reducing tension and restoring normal relations, nobody should expect long time peace to dawn on the Sub-Continent.
(The writer is the former Director of the Centre for Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University).