Geopolitical Analysis

By Dr. K.N. Pandita

The warning of NSA, General (retd) James Jones to President Asif Ali Zrdari that “if Pakistan cannot deliver, the U.S may be impelled to use any means at its disposal to rout insurgents based along Pakistan’s western and southern borders with Afghanistan” is variously interpreted by Pakistan watchers.

Well-informed sources read in these blunt words Washington’s embarrassment over the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, containing something like 80 – 100 nuclear warheads. Should they fall in the hands of Islamic insurgents, it would mean holocaust.  

Pakistani as well as American media hype of military operations, first in Swat and then in South Waziristan, overshadowed fast deepening crisis within the Pakistani polity.

Away from the fighting on the battle front and proliferating suicide bomb attacks on military and civilian targets by various Islamist insurgents in that country, a fierce struggle for power among various political identities on the one hand and growing rupture between the Presidential House and GHQ on the other can bode disaster for the beleaguered nation.
 
Seymond Hersh’s revelations in the New York Times of 16 November invited quick refutation by Pakistan’s Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Tariq Majid. Pakistani media just ignored a debate on the subject.

Hersh had said in his article that Pakistan was discussing undertakings with the US that could see specialists take sophisticated nuclear triggers out of the country to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands.”

Despite Pakistan’s intermittent assurances, Washington continued to be diffident of her ability to provide foolproof safety and security to her nuclear industry. For example, given her entrenched animus against India, Pakistan’s Kargil misadventure could have turned into a holocaust but for the great patience and foresight of Indian leadership.

In March last President Barack Obama asked Pakistan to take more aggressive action against Taliban enclaves inside Pakistan. Simultaneously, consultations between the two sides became more brisk with focus on the question of security of Pakistan’s nuclear installations.

Taliban attacks on sensitive targets like the GHQ and police headquarters caused more discomfiture to the Americans. Along with that, the rising controversy on National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) which had to expire on 28 November brought State Department’s Pakistan Desk under severe pressure.

Last month Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton and her team held long consultations with Pakistani side and particularly the Army Chief.  Indications of US having faith in the General were clear and loud.

Interaction between Admiral Max Mullen, US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff and his Pakistani counterpart General Kiyani on the issue of safety of Pakistan’s nuclear industry deepened, and on the American side, the Departments of Defense, State and Energy were also involved. The crucial part of discussion veered round America’s demand of taking sophisticated nuclear triggers out of Pakistan. That, argue the US interlocutors, will not only ensure safety against the Islamist extremists but will also immensely help in reducing tension with India and normalization on the Indo-Pal border.

Only last week, news came that President Zardari had handed over the control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal to the Prime Minster. The rationale given by Pakistani media was that since elected Prime Minister was in place, the control of nuclear arsenal had to be reverted to him according to the existing rules.

Actually on November 11, 2009  Fazal Pechuho, Chairperson of National Assembly Standing Committee on Defense had sent in her 11-member committee report seeking immediate legal enforcement to the NCA Ordinance of 2007 which sets out a multi-layered structure for control of nuclear arsenal. 

Mian Nawaz Sharif, the leader of opposition in the National Assembly objected to President Zardari maintaining control of nuclear arsenal and demanded that the authority should rest with the Committee of which President is the Chairman and PM is the Vice Chairman besides the three chiefs of defense forces and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He demanded that the leader of opposition should also be a member of the Committee.

These developments gradually led to the isolation of President Zardari.  Mian Nawaz Sharif expressed no trust in the President’s ability to keep Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal safe. Washington, too, pandered to same line of thinking and General Kiyani was too willing to play the role that Pakistani army has always, meaning the arbiter of the destiny of the nation.

When President Zardari indicated that he was not prepared to shed his constitutional powers like appointing armed forces chiefs or dissolve the parliament etc. Mian Nawaz Sharif threatened to stage a massive street demonstration. In order to bring more pressure on him, Army forwarded a list of some persons it wanted the President to remove for the reasons of security of the state.

On the top of the list is the name of Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan’s Ambassador in the US and formerly a veteran journalist. The allegation against him is that he is too close to US administration. Earlier, the army had said that Haqqani was soft towards India. The second person on the list is the Interior Minister, Rahman Malik, against whom the allegation is that he is too close to western intelligence agencies bypassing military establishment. There are other big persons on the list.

While this fracas is eating into the vitals of Pakistan polity, yet another bizarre piece of performance on Pakistan’s political stage is in the offing. The former Army Chief, Emergency Administrator and self-styled President namely General Musharraf is trying hard to stage a come-back. Eager to float a new political party and jump into the political arena of his country, Musharraf is planning his entry by distributing his enormous wealth lavishly among his former aids that had stood by him when he staged a coup and grabbed the reins of power. His donors are among the wealthiest like Muamar Qadafi of Libya. Reports say that he received 30 million dollars from UAE via his top banker and 3 million dollars from a Pakistani Cellular Company. He is reported to have already passed on one million dollars to one of his former aids to launch his political party.  Musharraf also banks on his close connection to Saudi Royalty and other more powerful sources. Through them he is trying to convince the Americans of his ability to fight and eradicate terrorism.

The simmering pot of Pakistan will undoubtedly unfold new situation and strategy in the region in months to come. At the bottom of these strategies lie two essential moves: one is Pakistan army’s search for cutting a deal with the tribal chiefs in NWFP by virtue of which normalcy would be restored in the area and partial tribal autonomy would be reiterated. The second is of US cutting another deal with Afghan Taliban which will isolate Al-Qaeda and pave the way for forming a coalition government with nationalists.
(The writer is the former Director of the Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University).