Geopolitical Analysis

by K.N.Pandita – In a letter to the Security Council Uzbek President Islam Karimov has demanded withdrawal of nearly 800 American troops from the Karshi-Khanabad air base close to Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border. It implies refusal of over flight rights to the Americans, and refuelling and emergency landing facilities.

First the reasons for Islam Karimov to take the confrontational posture. Washington had joined other western countries in denouncing Uzbekistan’s use of brute force to quill opposition in Andijan in Ferghana valley. They had been orchestrating prearrange of human rights.

Uzbek government is wary of what it calls the double standard of the western countries in regard to fighting international terrorism This indirectly means that the fountain-head of Hizbu’t-Tahreer, the main fundamentalist but dissident group across Central Asia, indulges freely in its anti-Uzbek propaganda with its base in London. Uzbekistan cannot forget that several abortive attempts were made on the life of the President by the terrorists like IMU or Hizbu’t-Tahreer.

It will be reminded that Washington stopped the financial support it has been giving to Uzbek government ever since the implosion of the Soviet Union Washington believes that Tashkent has not been able to uphold commitments to the UN Charter of Human Rights.

But President Karimov’s government has something more than just one grouse of stoppage of financial support. A recent communiqué of Uzbek foreign office vehemently criticised Washington for not respecting the clauses of the agreement governing the operation of Karshi-Khanabad air base. It accused Washington of not paying the landing and takeoff fees and not reimbursing the costs by Uzbekistan in guarding and servicing the base.

Angered by the western media hype of Andijan terrorism related events, and its understating of the grave security threats faced by Tashkent regime, Islam Karimov made rapid policy moves to preserve the state and his own position. He took a post-haste flight to Beijing and conferred with the Chinese high-ups on the situation arising from May mass movement in Ferghana and the stance of the Americans. This was the first big shift in Uzbekistan’s post-Soviet policy decisions vis-à-vis Washington. A year ago, Islam Karimov had, in anticipation of the mood of Washington, signed a pact for strategic cooperation with Moscow. In April Uzbekistan pulled out of a US-backed grouping of the former Soviet republics of Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Armenia and Moldova (GUAAM). In retaliation of American demand for a probe in Andijan uprising, Islam Karimov imposed restrictions on the US airbase in Uzbekistan.

Underneath this see-saw political scenario between Uzbekistan and the US, on can feel the contours of the “New Great Game” in Central Asia, the actors being USA Russia and China. The strategy is that of setting up and handling pawns and client states taking into account the fragile economies and political structures of former Soviet Central Asian States.

Rumsfeld wound up his three-day visit to Central Asia avoiding Uzbekistan. Giving little importance to the antics of Islam Karimove, he elicited a pledge form his Kyrgyz ally permitting him to retain the key air base of Manas as long the operations in Afghanistan required it. In Tajikistan, the US obtained refuelling and flight over permission for the air flights operating in Afghansitan.

It is interesting to know that neither Russia nor China staged any palpable reaction to the US military presence in Central Asia when the US military launched anti Al-Qaeda/Taliban campaign. In an apparent show of solidarity in resisting the terror of religions extremists.

That, however, did not mean the two neighbour powers with large interests in Central Asia would leave the field open for their rival, the USA, which had already positioned itself strategically in the region.

Recently, the shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which met in Astana, issued a joint statement saying that the active military phase of the Afghan operation was coming to an end and called on the US-led coalition to agree to a decline for ending the temporary use of bases and air space in member countries. India is an observer at the SCO.

The change in the regimes of former Soviet republics of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan cautioned Moscow as well a the Central Asian republics. It is generally believed that the regime change in these republics happened with the over or covert support from the US. This has forced the Central Asian regimes to look up to Moscow and to the SCO.

International press reported that Uzbek President was very vocal in Astana meeting. The Hindu wrote that for the Karimov government “getting the SCO to ask for the US forces to leave the region is a safe way of telling the Bush administration that it is no longer welcome to use Uzbek territory.”

China’s concern is not the rising Islamism in Xinjiang. She has deep economic interests in Central Asia. She has undertaken the building of 1,000-kilometer pipeline from Kazakhstan site of Karaganda region to its own north-western Xinjiang region. The Karaganda pipeline coming up in 2005 a 3,000 – kilometre long project will link China to the Kentia oil fields farther west and to the Caspian Sea.

China is also working on another project of Uzbek oil fields in the Ferghana Valley and has invested in hydroelectric projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Central Asian markets remain open to the inflow of Chinese goods. A turmoil-ridden Central Asia will be detrimental to peace and stability of Xinjiang province where China has a large Uighur population of Sunni Muslim faith.

Observers believe that the US military bases in Central Asia are not really crucial to her Afghan operations. The US has also economic interests in Central Asia beside geostrategic ones. Reacting to a question whether the military basis in Central Asia were crucial to her policy parameters in the region, a US spokesman said that “US bases were important for both the global war on terror as well as operations in Afghanistan, but we always have a range of options.. And there is no one facility that is, you know, so critical that we couldn’t manage without it”.

Apart from all this, the lurking rivalry between Russia and China for a strong and influential position in Central Asia should never be underestimated. While Russia is building up militarily in Kant in Tajikistan, China is building strongly in terms of hydrocarbon energy in Kazakhstan and the Caspian region. The US cannot pull out without incurring series retaliatory measures by the terrorist organizations in the region. The local regimes cannot withstand the onslaught of violent organizations if there is no foreign military presence there. They are locked in grim rivalry among themselves and the weaklings like Islam Karimov are making sharp and violent shifts in their policy only to keep themselves in positions of power, a prospect which will depend on the estimation of the US. The “New Great Game” is inching towards its unprecedented heights.
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