Geopolitical Analysis

K.N. Pandita, 7 Jan 2006 – Ever since Indo-Pak dialogue began a year or more ago, there have been contradictory and even confusing statements from various official quarters about the rise or fall in militancy related incidents in the J&K State. . Ministers and their top bureaucrats apart, even army generals also are willy-nilly dragged into this controversy.

It shows that pressures from some unknown quarters are exerted to force retracting of statements or re-interpretation of policy parameters. Pakistani media loses no opportunity of drawing another mile from New Delhi’s vacillation.

The situation on the ground can be gauged from what postures Islamabad adopts and reshapes. It has adopted a two-pronged policy. With the international community it creates the impression that it is amenable to concrete and positive talks on Kashmir and does not trust in hardliner approach. Therefore formula after formula for the solution of the rigmarole is forged in Pakistan’s intelligence controlled diplomatic armoury. It is to impress upon the international community that Pakistan is amenable to a variety of options but New Delhi refuses to budge.

These antics may work with casual observers. In reality the formulae, which flow in sequence, are the old wine in new bottles. At the core of these formulae is the scraping of status quo in Kashmir and replacing it by a dispensation that serves Pakistan’s interests.

Islamabad is not tired of the rhetoric of respect for the wishes of the Kashmiris. But it never clarified who the Kashmiris in its understanding are? The Hurriyatis have been meeting Gen. Musharraf for more than a year. They are in liaison with his agencies. The two sides have been talking. Yet the General repeats the rhetoric of Kashmiris as the third party without coming out with what he talked to them and what was their reaction.

Ali Shah Geelani has refused to meet with the General accusing him of deviating from his commitments and from the basic policy of Islamabad in regard to Kashmir “freedom fight”. In General’s opinion the ruling groups in Srinagar are not enjoying legitimacy. Who then are the Kashmiris who should be partners in the trilateral talks according to General Musharraf?

Islamabad is currently harping on demilitarisation and self-rule. It is careful not to stray into the areas of militancy, cross border infiltration, smuggling of arms and ammunition, recruitment of fresh blood into the militant cadres in Pakistan etc.

While talking of self-rule, the first and foremost step which Islamabad should take, and take without loss of time, is to revive the status of Northern Areas in accordance with the verdict of A.K High Court. A democratic structure should be created and people there empowered with civil, political and economic rights. Demographic complexion of Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan) should be reversed and restored to what it was before the relocation of Sunnis from NWFP. This will prepare the ground for the people in those regions to decide on self-rule. But what Pakistan feels is right is to deny the Northern Areas political freedom but demand the same for the people of Kashmir. This dichotomy and cannot work.

While Pakistan is doing all she can to keep India engaged in bilateral talks, she has accelerated the pace of terrorist activities in Kashmir. ISI sponsored militancy in Kashmir is reported to be changing its contours. Fresh blood is being injected into the veins of frontline terrorist organizations of LeT, Jaish. Al Mansoorian et al. Reports have come in that young boys who have been orphaned by recent earthquake in PoK are enticed to join the fundamentalist legions. In fact the task of distributing relief to the quake victims was left to the care of terrorist organizations. The Information Minister of Pakistan went to the length of defending the volunteers of banned terrorist organizations in undertaking relief work in the quake hit areas of PoK.

There are reports that the terrorists in Kashmir have acquired a new generation of weapons and other equipment highly effective in gorilla warfare. This weaponry has come from China and North Korea in particular. Upgraded lethal weapons, surveillance equipment and digital devices now used by the terrorists are far more superior to what the Indian security forces have been using. Islamabad is reported to have diverted a good portion of foreign quake relief remittances for the purchase of this equipment.

Exacerbating of militancy on the one hand, and giving media hype to peace talks on the other is to mount pressure on New Delhi to embark on serious negotiations on Kashmir. While briefing the foreign donors of aid to the earthquake victims, General Musharraf made a surprise appeal to India saying that India should make the donation of Kashmir and prove her large-heartedness. Nothing could be more simplistic than that. He knows what he says is rhetoric and not achievable. But then his aim was not solution of Kashmir problem but to sensitise the international community to the issue and toi pose as one who is at the frontline of peacea brigade in Kashmir.

The targets now selected by the terrorists in different places i8n India also speak of changed strategy. It is now clear that they are avoiding thickly populated places, market places, places where there would be concentration of people etc. Aparat from military targets, the terrorists are planning industrial, technical and scientific complexes, scientists and eminent men and critical and crucial materials. No wonder that they may have the plans of targetting India’s nuclear installations, communication netwoeks, transport system, metro, and other vital installations. All this is coming to light as a result of the investigations carried out in the context of attack on IIS and the killing of Prof. Puri.

The terrorists, carrying ou the plan of ISI, have spread out a vast network throughout the country. They have trained their cadres in subversion. There is a strong link between the terrorists at home and in the neighbouring countriers. Many people have been roped in to see that their operations are a full success.

Perhaps Pakistan is now making a final bid at destabilising India by creating internal disorder and chaos. This may be the last option before the option of war if she risks.

No complacency should be allowed to meet this challenge. In the first place, the Indian State should approach the leadership of Indian Muslim political, social and religious organizations to shed their complacency and jump into the fray. It is not only the responsibility of the government to face the challenge. The second largest Muslim population shall have to throw in its weight in giving a direction to the misled youth of its community. It has to work for the future generations and for the cause of the Indian civil society. This is the first and foremost step. The Muslim leadership should come out forcefully in condemnation of terrorism as a political weapon.

India is an open and democratic society. All issues and difference if any can be resolved through a dialogue. That is the spirit of democracy. But at the same time the political leadership of the country should make it clear that if its offers of a dialogue, debate and discussion are rejected and violence is made a political weapon then the might of the Indian state shall have to come into action.
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