Geopolitical Analysis

by K.N. Pandita – Iran’s revolution of 1979 was a queer mix of politics, religion and personal vendetta. Anti-Americanism was born out of a three decades – long seesaw battle of the Leftist Tudeh/Jibbh-e Milli against the American supported Pahlavi monarchy, sharp Shia religious sensitivity resulting from endemic ethnic-religious rivalry with the Saudis and personal vendetta of late Ayatollah Khumeini against Reza Shah.

At the time of eruption of revolution, the traditional Left wing had suffered a massive mauling and was in disarray. Absence of a genuine and broad-based nationalist political party forced the remnant of the Tudeh/Jibhh-e Milli to throw its weight on the side of the agitating clerics who had little aspiration of carrying their battle beyond the removal of the monarchy. In the initial stages, the clerics were reconciled to power passing into the hands of the Leftists once monarchy had crumbled.

But the revolutionary wave took a different and rather unexpected turn. The clerics managed to seize power and gradually sideline the leftists who had stood in the forefront of the revolution and had also taken a good beating from the withdrawing monarchical regime. After that there was no looking back for the Ayatollahs.

With no definite economic development agenda and a slip slop domestic as well as foreign policy, the Ayatollahs pulled out Islamization plan and began enforcing it with full intensity. In its foreign policy, it adopted the single track of confronting the US rightly or wrongly at all platforms in a bid that Iran would pioneer an anti-American campaign as a new avatar rising in the Islamic world. It was an ill-conceived policy.

Iran’s open hostility to the State of Israel was bound to make her the frontline enemy of the Jewish lobby in the US and elsewhere. Iranian President’s recent remarks that his country wished annihilation of Israel has done great damage to her cause on international level.

With the passage of time, Ayatollahs began to lose their popularity and appeal because Iranians are intrinsically whimsical people never steadfast to one particular situation. As the youth comprising more than fifty per cent of Iran’s total population began distancing themselves from the puritanical ideology of the clerics, the regime used one lever after the other to entrench themselves in position of power.

One of the main reasons of Iran’s obstinacy in the matter of enrichment of uranium and making of nuclear weapons emanates from the compulsions of her domestic politics. The Ayatollahs cannot succumb to international pressures even if they are exhorted by a sporadic good and common sense. As the US and her allies began mounting pressure on Iran to abandon her uranium enrichment programme, the theocratic regime could read the writing on the wall. That would be the end of the day for them.

We do not precisely know what is the philosophy behind Russia and China cautioning the Americans and her allies against the use of force in Iran? But the fact is that Iraq experience should serve a pointer in the matter. A war against Iran will be as bloody and procrastinated as the Iraq war has been. Moreover, it is going to cause disaster to the countries depending on Iranian oil and gas. Believing that force does not solve problems especially those with intentional ramifications, it is advisable that the US and her European allies move away from the option of the use of force and try more effective and less destructive ones to handle Iranian crisis.

That Iran is behaving in a self-destructive manner in certain matters like supporting terrorists in Lebanon, feeding anti-American propaganda in Iraq or openly handing out threats to Israel, is a situation one cannot ignore. The Americans need to convince the world community that Iran is behaving in a recalcitrant manner other than her nuclear weapon obsession. But the right approach to resolve the crisis would be to devise a strategy that brings pressure on the regime through internal forces, liberal and democratic forces within Iranian society. Instead of rattling the sword, the US and her western allies should convince Russia and China that Iran is playing a dangerous game that culminates in destabilization of peace in the Asian continent.

This would call for cool headed diplomacy spread over a few years. Iranian youth is receptive to democratization and secularization of Iranian society, which is the key to the resolution of Iranian crisis. How this agenda would be accomplished is what the American and European think-tanks should concentrate upon. It may be a lengthy process but it will be a dependable and long-term solution to Iranian crisis. (The writer is the former Director, Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University, India).