Geopolitical Analysis

by K.N. Pandita – Teheran has successfully tested fired multi-barrel missile also capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Responsible Iranian official circles show no relent in their defiance of Security Council’s missive. British cabinet called a meeting of the chiefs of armed forces to assess the situation if Iran’s confrontational stance escalates. US Secretary of State has brought in charges against Iran other than her uranium enrichment programme. The situation is heading towards a crisis.

Iran is a case of split personality. Her post – revolution history is, in part, a stupendous struggle for re-establishment of a lost identity. Swinging from one extreme to another extreme has gone into the construct of that society for many historical reasons traceable to pre-Islamic periods. Today the Iranian society is locked in a grim struggle for equilibrium.

Iran does not need nuclear weapons to protect and preserve her sovereignty and territorial integrity. There is virtually no threat on these counts. Iran has no scarcity of energy sources to look out for nuclear energy for civilian use. She is the third largest supplier of hydrocarbon energy to the world.

An arch rival of Saudi Arabia, Iran tried to wrest the ecclesiastical supremacy from the custodians of the twin holy shrines by labeling 1979 revolution as Islamic. Things did not stop there. Ayatollahs raised Shia sectarian ideology to their sanctimonious heights and claimed that Iran under Ayatollahs was ordained to export Islamic revolution to the world. They carved the “victimized” regions and peoples.

But not prepared to surrender its hold on the Muslim world, the Saudis retaliated with vengeance. Sunni Wahhabism engulfed the whole Sunni world from the Dardanelles to the Malacca. Eventually, the Ayatollahs were faced to come face to face with the Frankenstein of their own creation. They could not but withdraw to their shell. Exports of Islamic revolution, the greatest commandment of the Grand Ayatollah, become unsustainable. Was the prophecy of “the Era of Iran” (Zaman-e Iran) only surrealistic?

As Sunni Wahhabism almost washed off the impact of Iran’s Islamic revolution, the Ayatollahs held the anti-Israel lever by their teeth. They hoped this would leave them unchallenged in the anti-Jewish segment of Islamic world. Iranian President’s recent anti-Jewish tantrum is a pointer.

As the harsh reality of a fragile revolutionary ideology began to unfold, democratic, secular and pluralistic forces hitherto suppressed in Iran under the theocratic regime found an opportunity for resurrection. Last one decade has seen intense stratification of Iranian society. At the same time, the Iranian Diaspora, qualitatively as well as quantitatively impressive, lent its support to the grim struggle of democratization of Iran.

Iran’s nuclearization programme is closely linked to this scenario of emerging nuances of her social structure. Therefore the US and her allies would be well advised to concentrate on the struggle of the Iranian society for establishing its identity of a proud nation of Aryan stock that has contributed significantly to the enrichment of Islamic civilization over last fourteen centuries. Iran needs to be repatriated to her glorious history and her enviable civilization. The US, the European powers, Asian giants — Russia, China and India — all should call a grand meeting to propose a blue print for restoring Iran to her democratic and secular status. This can be done only through interaction, dialogue and understanding among like-minded people and not through the use of brute force or even of the weapons of mass destruction. The great powers need to turn a new leaf in contemporary history of diplomacy. This major plan is attainable. (The writer is the former Director, Centre of Central Asian Studies, University of Kashmir).