Geopolitical Analysis

By K.N. Pandita – The EU envoy had a two-hour long meeting with the Iranian nuclear negotiator Larijani in Tehran. No side is expected to make public the contours of the talks.

Iran has one disadvantage and the western powers plus the US have so far avoided that pitfall. Iran has taken a stance, whipped up public euphoria and got caught up in the mess. Retracing her steps would mean not only hurt ego but also a prospect of political uncertainty.

The US has been holding a stick and a carrot policy towards Iran whereas the three European powers, UK, France and Germany took recourse to astute diplomacy in dealing with the nuclear issue. Russia and China have been holding an olive branch to Teheran.

However, things have moved beyond the scenario that prevailed three months ago. The EU with the agreement of the US has re-drawn a comprehensive package to be offered to Teheran in return of a promise of putting a halt to the production of nuclear weapons. The package takes care of Iran’s civilian nuclear needs, security and lifting of ban on arms purchases imposed on her in 1979.

The crucial question is not that western powers are providing a broad-based package. The real problem is does it go in line with the policy of Teheran of producing nuclear weapons?

Iranian President made no bones in making public announcement sometimes back that his country has the agenda of effacing Israel from the map of the world. No sensible and responsible head of the state would make a vile statement like that.

Therefore the question is: Does the proposal of the EU stipulate “dissolution” of Israel? If yes, then Iran should have no difficulty whatsoever in accepting the package because it provides a face saving to the President and his policy. But if the package does not contain any assurance to that effect, and of course it will never, then Iran can reach its goal only by producing WMD, which she will use oblivious of the fact which of the two countries gets decimated first. This seals the fate of the EU offer.

Teheran shall have to come out of the obsession of “annihilating” Israel. Iran is not a super power and if she decides to make an adventure, she will have to fight the war single handedly. That means inviting disaster and destruction of Iran in shortest possible time.

On the other hand, President Bush made a categorical statement that the US stands by the side of Israel and will not allow its destruction.

The ball is in Iran’s court. It is not enough to orchestrate the right of Iran to make a nuclear bomb. Rights do not flow in a vacuum. It is the ground situation that decides issues. Iranian leadership knows that Iran, or for that matter any other country does not live in isolation. Iran cannot hold the entire world at ransom in the matter of supply of oil, the life line of contemporary humanity.

Hitler made his commitment to the decimation of the Jews. He put death machines into movement. Today, sixty years after that horrendous event, the Jews are not only strong but also do have a say in shaping the destiny of the world. Iran needs to understand that.

Iran is a country with a glorious past and rich civilization. Its role in the evolution of just and human social system is enviable. In all fields of life, Iranians have shown their remarkable ingenuity. We hope they will not show that ingenuity in embarking on the destruction of humanity in a large part of Asia.

The recent package offered by the EU has not only the support of the US but also the agreement of Russia and China. The US has succeeded in isolating Iran in that sense on this issue. It is now for the Iranian political leadership to see how it can now wriggle out of the meshwork into which it has got entangled.

May be Iran will have to dispense with the present presidential incumbency. That is not of western choosing but of President’s own recalcitrance. The theocratic regime may not have been faced with critically serious internal complexity all these years, but nuclear issue is not that simple.