Shanghai – 6 and regional strategies

By K.N. Pandita – 15 June 2006 summit meet of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is variously interpreted in political circles. In Washington inquisitive circles would want to know if it is the Chinese version of the now – defunct Warsaw Pact to counter NATO?

The declaration issued after the summit, reflects SCO’s unexplained fears, expectations and warnings. Russia and China, two dominant members of the organization, would like to reassure Washington that the SCO is not intended to be an anti-US bloc, and in a sense, complements her agenda of war against terrorism. However, the hyperbole is difficult to receive easy acceptance.

Indian Prime Minister was the only head of the government among the three observer members (India, Pakistan and Iran) who did not attend the summit. This seemed a very calculated move.

President Musharraf of Pakistan, who had arrived a day earlier in Shanghai, did some robust lobbying to earn SCO regular membership for his country. However, Pakistan’s staunch ally China had little at hand to disarm Russian diffidence that Musharraf could stop proliferation of radical terror in his country.. At the same time, China, with her experience with Uighur radical elements cannot dismiss these apprehensions in a casual manner.

Apart from this, India was given to understand from the deliberations of previous five meetings of the organization that if at all the SCO was inclined to admit Pakistan as a regular member, it would do so only if India was also admitted. In reality at least the Central Asian members of the SCO did not restrict their approach to Indo-Pak relationship phenomenon exclusively on parity basis. Thus President Musharraf’s plea that Pakistan served a bridge between the West and the South East had no serious takers as such.

New Delhi’s perception was that the presence of the Indian PM at the summit would tempt the permanent members to seriously consider admitting both India and Pakistan as regular members of the SCO. Indian PM’s absence neutralised Pakistan hard lobbying for Pakistan’s permanent membership. It means that confident of its influence with the Central Asian member states of the organization, New Delhi fount it more in her interests not to insist on her regular membership. Observers believe that India does not want to do anything that would have an adverse impact on the Indo-US nuclear deal which is now before the US Congress for final decision. This indicates a significant re-orientation of regional strategies.

This is not the only baffling question with the SCO. Of late, Iran has emerged the new “rogue state” in Asian continent because of her uranium enrichment programme. Both Russia and China are reluctant to admit Iran as a permanent member for fear of incurring US’ displeasure. Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s reiteration of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme at the Shanghai summit was counterproductive, to say the least. In particular, President Nursultan of Kazakhstan could not accept the plea that Iran needed a nuclear deterrent. In a letter to the Iranian President, he recalled that his country had voluntarily withdrawn nuclear stockpiles after the collapse of the Soviet Union. His contention was that he had demolished that type of concept by dismantling over two thousand nuclear warheads set up in Kazakhstan during Soviet power.

While Russia and China, as dominant members of SCO might be trying to reduce the influence of the US in Central Asia, yet at the same time Russia would want US’ exit only from Central Asia and not from South East Asia. This stand does not go in line with China’s policy either in Central Asia or in south East Asia.

It, therefore, appears that despite shared anti-American feelings, the members of SCO harbour serious difference of opinion among themselves.

The second part of the study is what is the reaction of the US to this configuration? Responsible circles in Washington believe that although the declaration signed by six members does speak of diversity of civilizations and respect for development etc. yet statements like that of the Iranian President saying “We need strong organization to protect us from unreasonable foreign interference” clearly showed that the organization could work in concert against the interests of the US.

US sees Kazakhstan as a moderating force in the SCO. It will be reminded that the US courted Kazakh President Nursultan soon after the implosion of the Soviet State. US Vice President Dick Cheney visited Kazakhstan in May last and had sweet words for the Kazakh President. Evidently Nursultan is doing something of a balancing act between what a commentator wrote “the bear, the dragon and the eagle”.

For the first time in her post-independence history, India has become pro-active in Central Asia by establishing an air base at Ainy (also Farkhor) to the north of Tajik capital Dushanbe. When fully operational, the Indian bas is expected to host between 12-14 MiG-29 fighter bombers, according to various reports. India’s intention to open its first base located on foreign soil was first reported in 2002. At that time, some reports claimed, that the Ayni facility was already operational, and, therefore, could have been used for operations against either Islamic militants operating in Central Asia or Pakistan.

Indeed, the origins of this base lie in Pakistan’s closure of its air space to India during their crisis of 2001-02, and India’s resolve to get around this restriction for both its commercial and military aircraft. Evidently, the presence of the Indian air force in Ainy could not be possible without the consent of both Russia and the US. It has to be reminded that Russia has an air base in close proximity of Ainy where the Indians are making a toehold. To say that the ultimate objective of the Indians is to attack Pakistan from the rear in a situation of exigency, is not warranted by the situation on the ground. What must have motivated Russia and the US to agree to India’s idea of establishing a base in Tajikistan appears to be part of their counter-terrorism strategy. Moreover, India like China is oil hungry and Kazakhstan and one or two more Central Asian states are having hydrocarbon reserves from which India would like to benefit. The building of Karakoram Highway by China connecting its western border with Karachi sea port has remained a thorn in India’s side. Commentators had predicted a counterbalancing act on the part of New Delhi. (The writer is the former Director of Centre of Central Asian Studies, University of Kashmir, Srinagar).

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