Geopolitical Analysis

Published on Asia Times, by Syed Saleem Shahzad, May 12, 2011.

ISLAMABAD – Pakistan’s military and intelligence community was fully aware of and lent assistance to the United States mission to get a high-value target in Abbottabad on May 2. What it did not know was that it was Osama bin Laden who was in the crosshairs of US Special Forces, and what angered the top brass even more was that Washington – in clear breach of an understanding – claimed sole ownership of the operation.

Over the years since Pakistan joined the US in the “war on terror” following the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 to oust the Taliban, the US has conducted numerous covert operations – apart from unleashing the missiles of unmanned Predator drones on militant targets – deep inside Pakistan.  Continue Reading…

Published on Breaking News 24/7, by Ani, July 5, 2009.

WASHINGTON – The United States is hoping to get support from the Pakistan Army in its offensive in Afghanistan, but the hostility between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not allowing the US-led allied forces to carry out an all out offensive in the region and is impeding their success, The Washington Post reports.

The U.S. troops are struggling to overcome decades of enmity between Afghanistan and Pakistan in the rough terrains of the border area, the report said …

… U.S. officials said that they must have the support of ‘deeply suspicious’ Pakistani forces to stop the flow of Taliban fighters across the 90-mile stretch of border.

They said that a border coordination center on the Afghan side where commanders from all three countries could plan operations should be operationalised in order to counter and address the real threat.

“Our goal is to get everyone focused on the common enemy,” Dempsey said. (ANI). (full text).

By Maharaj K. Kaul,

Michael Krepon’s recent analysis “Pakistan’s Future and U.S. Assistance” [1], appears more to be an apology for the failing state of Pakistan rather than a dispassionate analysis that would produce solutions to halt and reverse the rapidly deteriorating state of affairs in that country. The progressive Talibanisation of Pakistan poses a serious threat not only to Pakistan but to all the countries in its neighbourhood. Yet, instead of identifying the evil forces in Pakistan and then prescribing a bitter pill for its recovery, Krepon continues to show more sensitivity towards those very power wielders of Pakistan who have wrecked that country.  One does not have to be a South Asian expert to analyze what ails Pakistan. But what some so-called experts do is to simply obfuscate the issues.  Continue Reading…

(Had been published first on STIMSON South Asia)

By Michael Krepon,

News reports of the Taliban’s mostly uncontested advances in Pakistan ’s North-West Frontier Province have prompted panicky assessments and remedies.  The situation in Pakistan clearly calls for heightened concern, but panic is usually not the handmaiden of sound policy decisions.

Several conclusions should now be inescapable, but still remain difficult for many Pakistanis to accept.  It is now abundantly clear that the problem of Talibanization is beyond the blocking capacity of constabulary forces.  Taliban irregulars will continue to intimidate and strangle settled areas within Pakistan unless their advance is contested by elements of the Pakistan Army.  The Army, which has been trained and equipped to fight Hindus and not fellow Muslims, is understandably reluctant to engage in this contest unless and until it has the backing of Pakistan ’s major political parties.  This, in turn, requires a much more widespread public recognition of the existential threat posed to Pakistan by obscurantists carrying Kalashnikovs and grenade launchers.   Continue Reading…

Linked with K.N. Pandita’s Answer to. Mr. Krepon. And also linked with Michael Krepon – USA, and with STIMSON.org (will appear on our blogs on Dec. 12, 2008).

Received by mail:

From: Michael Krepon
Date: 10/12/2008

By Michael Krepon

Another panel of experts, another dire warning.  This time, a commission led by former Senators Bob Graham and Jim Talent have concluded that, “Unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.”  Beware: According to the commission, “America’s margin of safety is shrinking, not growing.”

Senators Graham, Talent and Co. are not alone.  Another commission convened by the government of Australia has issued a public warning that the world “is on the brink of an avalanche” of nuclear danger and proliferation.  Former Senator Sam Nunn believes that “The risk of a nuclear weapon being used today is growing, not receding.”  And eighty-five nonproliferation experts polled by Senator Richard Lugar in 2005 (including this author) estimated that the combined risk of an attack by weapons of mass destruction was fifty per cent over five years, and seventy per cent over ten.

Continue Reading…

Published on Asia Times, by Raja Murthy , Dec. 9, 2008.

MUMBAI – Dawood Ibrahim, one of Asia’s most notorious mafia dons and India’s version of Osama bin Laden, is emerging as a key suspect in the funding and logistical support for the November 26 terrorist strike on Mumbai.

Ibrahim, who tops the Mumbai police list of its 44 most wanted criminals, is among 20 fugitives India has asked Pakistan to extradite following the multiple attacks in Mumbai that killed nearly 200 …

… Karachi-based newspaper Newsline reported in a September 2001 cover story titled “Karachi’s Gang Wars” that two rival underworld gangs in the city were both working for Ibrahim.

“After the 1993 Mumbai bomb blasts, Dawood Ibrahim and his team have made Karachi their new home and base of operations,” the Karachi Newsline report said. “Living under fake names and IDs, and provided protection by government agencies, they have built up their underworld empire in Karachi employing local talent like Shoaib and Bholoo.”

Continue Reading…

Pakistan’s LeT, not as well known as Al Qaeda, threatens India, the West and even Pakistan

Published on YaleGlobal online, by Ashley J. Tellis, 8 December 2008.

WASHINGTON: Whenever New Delhi points a finger at Pakistan in the aftermath of a terrorist attack in India, a weary world seems to say, “Here we go again!” The old enmity between the two countries can tire spectators who often quickly dismiss Indian accusations of Pakistani malfeasance are little other than political recriminations. Yet, the latest terrorist assault in Bombay – involving 10 coordinated strikes that killed close to 200 and the capture of a Pakistani terrorist, Azam Amir Kasab, from Faridkot – leaves no doubt about the authenticity of the Indian charge …

Continue Reading…

(See ‘Nuke deal and understatements‘ on Geopolitical Analysis).

By Maharaj K.Kaul

It was with disbelief that I read in Prof. Pandita’s article ‘Nuke Deal and Understatements’, that Indian communists are afraid of India becoming prosperous because they will lose their constituency!

Kerala, the first state where communists came to power in India in 1957, today stands ahead of all the Indian states in Human Development Index with life expectancy at birth at 75 years and infant mortality at 12 per 1000 live births. The rest of India, most of which is not ruled by comrades, falls far behind with the corresponding figures at 64 years and 54 per 1000! And Kerala is almost 100 literate when the corresponding figure for India is around 64! And yet, Prof. Pandita accuses the comrades of being against prosperity!  Continue Reading…